Except for BTC, all other currencies can be ignored

Nakamoto 2025-10-14 12:03 12366人围观 BTC

BtcNEWS Recently, many people are debating the asset attributes and hedging functions of Bitcoin. The author has explained this topic many times, but the people arguing have not figured it out yet. In fact, from the perspective of volatility, Bitcoin shou

Btc
NEWS

Recently, many people are still debating the asset attributes and hedging functions of Bitcoin. The author has explained this topic many times, but the debaters have not figured it out yet. In fact, from the perspective of volatility, Bitcoin should be classified as a risky asset, but this does not affect Bitcoin's hedging function under certain conditions. The biggest data support for this logic is that since the Sino-US trade war, Bitcoin has been linked to gold four times with zero error. In addition, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has also been confirmed by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He said that Bitcoin has begun to be used by people to replace gold and is a speculative value reserve.

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currency market trader

Let the 1% of people think first

The logic behind economic and financial phenomena is very complex. Comparing the historical trend of Bitcoin and the trend of gold, we can find that there is a strong correlation between the two in a certain period of time, but there is no correlation between the two in a certain period of time. In fact, this change has a lot to do with the different macro environments of Bitcoin in different time periods, because the price trend is often the result of the combined effect of many factors. When a certain macro variable is increased or decreased, the degree of correlation will also change. For example, good economic fundamentals are the driving force for the bullish stock market, but the A-share bull market in 2014-2015 was launched when the economy was very sluggish, because one variable played a crucial role, that is liquidity, which shows that when the economy is not good, relying on floods can also drive the stock market to bullish.

Today, Ren Zeping published on the public account "The RMB exchange rate broke through 7, and it broke well!" ” mentioned that Trump will crack down on China’s regulation of capital flows by supporting the Bitcoin platform, which explains why Bitcoin has a hedging function in the Sino-US trade friction. And what are the characteristics of Bitcoin that enable it to serve as a value medium in cross-border capital flows? The author summarizes the following four points:

1. Due to decentralization, anonymity, super-sovereignty and other characteristics, Bitcoin transfers are safe and circulation is unregulated.

2. Bitcoin has a large value storage capacity, with a circulating market value of US$217.5 billion, and can accommodate a large amount of funds.

3. Liquidity is good, with a 24H trading volume of US$43 billion, making it very convenient to cash out.

4. The consensus is very strong. It is held by more than 50 million people around the world. Its currency base exceeds that of Russia, and it is the eighth currency in the world.

On the eve of the Sino-US trade friction, in order to prevent illegal transfers of assets and money laundering activities, China began to strengthen supervision of cross-border capital flows. At that time, several companies with very frequent overseas investment activities were named, including a large number of industrial capitals such as Wanda and Anbang. In an environment of strict financial supervision, legal cross-border capital flows are still subject to strict supervision by the Chinese government, and it is even more difficult to transfer funds from unknown sources.

Under the influence of intensified economic downward pressure and Sino-US trade friction, China's business environment continues to deteriorate, RMB assets continue to depreciate, and domestic funds are very willing to flee. Among this part of funds, overseas hot money and domestic black money coming in through underground channels account for a considerable proportion, so relying on the Bitcoin network for asset transfer is undoubtedly their best choice.

Therefore, whenever the RMB depreciates more, the demand for capital flight becomes stronger, and the market demand for Bitcoin will continue to increase.

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currency market trader

Market analysis

BTC: The main type of capital grouping. The daily line has been positive for five consecutive times. The trend is very strong. Yesterday's rise has completed the replenishment. There is still power to continue to rise in the short term. Investors should not speculate on the top or go short on the left. If there is goods in hand, they can hold the currency and wait for it to rise. If there is no goods, they can wait for a retracement before entering the market. It is expected that there will be a strong callback near the 13,000 pressure area.

ETH: It has absorbed part of the overflow funds of BTC and has started to make up for the increase in the past two days. However, the make-up market is coming to an end, and the spot can be cleared around 250.

LTC: The benefits of the production reduction have been implemented, the currency price has fallen after rising, and there is a strong demand to compensate for the short-term decline. It is recommended to avoid it.

EOS: There is no sign of independent strength. There is only a pulsating rise during the session. Bulls have no confidence. A surge is an opportunity to reduce their positions. There is very little room to make up for the increase. It is not recommended to participate.

HT: Continue to fluctuate and strengthen. If the 5-day moving average does not fall below, you can continue to hold it.

OKB: The acceleration should not be accelerated, it will become a stack of small positives, the trend is already weak, beware of bardo adjustments, and hold until it breaks the 5-day moving average.

Disclaimer: The articles pushed by currency market traders are for reference only and are not used as a basis for investment research and decision-making. Any investment decisions made by investors based on them have nothing to do with this official account.

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