What is behind the crazy Ethereum?

Vitalik 2025-10-14 16:03 22735人围观 ETH

There are two reasons for writing this article.

First, many of my Weibo fans don’t understand Ethereum. I want to try to explain what Ethereum is in a language that can be understood without any technical background.

Second, I would like to try the paid reading method to see if anyone accepts it. My knowledge is valuable, but giving it away makes it cheap.

This article is not a speculative guide. It's just my own understanding of Ethereum. I cannot guarantee that my opinions are correct, I can only guarantee that these opinions are based on my cognition in the process of learning.

I hope you have your own independent point of view, treat my point of view with caution, and even take into account possible errors caused by my lack of knowledge.

If you suffer losses due to speculation based on my views, please bear your own responsibility.

Has Ethereum made you money?

Starting from January 10 this year, Ethereum started trading at around 6 yuan. By the time I started writing this article (March 6), the price of Ethereum displayed on Yunbi.com was 79 yuan, an increase of more than 13 times.

However, if I ask the question "Has Ethereum made you money?" many people will be embarrassed or even depressed. 99% of people in the domestic Bitcoin circle have missed this opportunity.

Not making money is not a mistake, but if you look at why you didn’t make money, many people will answer this way:

*Didn't pay attention；

*Thought it was just an ordinary altcoin；

*I thought it was the same as bts.

Yes, for those who don’t pay attention, Ethereum is another world. Just like you may know nothing about certain industries, but people in this industry make a lot of money. This is simply the inevitable result of "cognitive bias".

Remember why we invested in Bitcoin? Which real long-term investor has not understood the value of Bitcoin and is fascinated by it after studying its principles?

It is precisely this group of people who are so dismissive of Ethereum. They don’t even understand what Ethereum is, so they add it to the contempt chain with a sense of superiority.

Similarly, many fans of fiat currencies also despise Bitcoin. Therefore, they can only become ordinary "users" in the future, rather than early "investors".

When you can't see the world, the world also abandons you!

This is why you are not making money from Ethereum.

So now you want to know what Ethereum is?

Is Ethereum a currency?

no! Ethereum is an abstract summary of the underlying technology.

By analogy, can I ask you, is the operating system an APP application? Of course not.

Ethereum itself is not a currency, but a blockchain infrastructure. I once wrote this in my previous article "The Smart Things About Ethereum":

Ethereum can be imagined as a land in a new world that has been leveled, with all the three connections and one leveling infrastructure in place. Anyone can build what they want on this land, as long as it complies with the basic rules of this land.

There was nothing on this land at the beginning, but now there are many high-rise buildings under construction, and it is becoming increasingly prosperous. Even the eleven largest banks in the world will build R3 buildings on this land. More large companies are asking how to settle in. This land has become a prosperous new world, which is becoming possible day by day.

Ethereum is just the currency of this new world. It can be used to pay utility bills and purchase services. It is also the financial blood of the entire new world.

This article only received 4 comments, which is the article with the fewest comments I have ever written. And almost all of them have a contemptuous attitude. When the above article was published, the price of Ethereum was about 15 yuan (if I knew the future, I would buy more at that time, tears! ).

Closer to home, Ethereum, as a blockchain infrastructure, makes the development of blockchain applications simpler and more efficient, and also makes these applications more secure and reliable.

For example: if you want to issue a currency (it sounds like BTS, I am just starting from here for an example), you no longer need to consider issues such as mining, source code, performance, security, etc. You only need to compile the rules and features, and it can be completed quickly and easily on Ethereum.

With the help of Ethereum's powerful programmability, this currency can realize the functions of almost any digital currency that has been issued so far.

Let’s give another example: You want to build a blockchain project for food safety tracking. Use blockchain timestamps to track the path from planting to production to final sale to users, achieving openness, transparency and traceability of production.

If there is no Ethereum, you need to build a blockchain system yourself. The maintenance and management of the blockchain system itself is a huge workload. and

Using Ethereum, you can do application programming directly on the Ethereum blockchain. Developers only need to write the practical application parts, and the basic blockchain part can completely rely on Ethereum itself. This approach will make blockchain development very economical.

Through the above analogies and examples, you should be able to understand that Ethereum is a technology, a blockchain infrastructure, and an underlying platform that can be used to develop various blockchain-based and decentralized applications.

Ethereum is the currency of this infrastructure, and its meaning is the value circulation in the Ethereum system. It is not intended to become a member of the currency system in the real world. However, if there are enough holders and users of Ethereum, it will naturally form a value correspondence relationship with currencies in the real world.

Will Ethereum be the next BTS?

My answer is no.

Let’s first understand what bts is.

Bts can be understood as an enhanced version of Bitcoin, an application with built-in functions.

The main functions of bts are: issuing assets, built-in exchanges, anchoring currencies, and the "efficient" system after 2.0； We use application software as an analogy. Bitcoin is like a word processing software, mainly used for basic operations such as text editing, while bts is an enhanced version of word processing software. In addition to text editing, it can also create forms, send emails, and run some simple macros. However, BTS is still an application in essence.

But Ethereum is basically an operating system.

On this operating system, you can develop various applications, including education, music, games, storage applications, almost everything.

So, essentially Ethereum and BTS are completely different things.

There is a rather ridiculous point of view in the industry: because @热尊王 once supported bts, and then bts failed to recover. Later, @热尊王 also supported Ethereum, so Ethereum will also collapse.

What do you think is the difference between the above logic and the logic that it is dawn when the rooster crows? Therefore, it is dawn because of the rooster crow?

It is almost sad that a person who can invest in Bitcoin would have such a biased thinking pattern.

Another difference between Ethereum and BTS is the difference in application scale. It’s not that bts hasn’t worked hard in the past two years, but most of its efforts have yielded no results. No decent organization has ever reached substantial cooperation with bts.

But Ethereum has long been favored by large institutions, from Samsung and IBM in the early days, to Wanxiang, Deloitte, Microsoft, and then to R3. The logic behind this is simple. Researchers from large companies are not vegetarians. Their final recognition has essentially proven that Ethereum’s technology is reliable and usable.

Therefore, Ethereum and BTS are not on the same level at all. If someone who immediately thinks of BTS when mentioning Ethereum, I can only say that his brain has been kicked by a donkey. His only mission in the currency circle is to be a leek.

The real reason for Ethereum’s surge

First, the value of the underlying technology.

As mentioned in the above paragraph, the favor of many large companies and institutions towards Ethereum has allowed the value of Ethereum’s underlying technology to be discovered. Such discoveries were first based on senior developers who could understand Ethereum, and then were gradually spread to surrounding people.

And because it is a common demand to use Ethereum as infrastructure to develop applications, the value of Ethereum is further discovered, and the price rises. The price increase has brought about a chain reaction, causing the "tun" of some Ethereum coins to be used in the future due to development needs to become a rigid demand, resulting in an increase in the price of Ethereum coins.

Second, natural legitimacy

This is very, very, very important.

Governments are not very friendly towards Bitcoin because Bitcoin is essentially a substitute for legal tender. No matter how implicitly this meaning is expressed, it cannot change its essence.

In order to protect their own interests, it is almost normal for governments and banks to impose various restrictions and crackdowns on Bitcoin. This has inhibited the development speed of Bitcoin to some extent.

On the contrary, blockchain technology itself is just a technology and has no position or preconceived views. For banks, a tool to optimize efficiency ； For the government, it is a way to reduce operating costs. This is also the reason why the “blockchain” concept became popular in the second half of 2015.

There have been ridiculous debates before about whether the Bitcoin blockchain is the only legitimate blockchain. It's as ridiculous as whether the solar system is the only legitimate star system. This great discovery of the value of Ethereum has also put an end to the erroneous logic of the inevitable binding between blockchain technology and Bitcoin.

Opportunities left by Bitcoin

Bitcoin still contributes to the rise of Ethereum.

On the one hand, PNet, the largest trading market, uses Bitcoin and Ethereum to trade. In this process, Bitcoin becomes money.

On the other hand, the controversy over Bitcoin’s expansion and forks has actually caused some panic and hedging demand. After Ethereum's sharp rise, its market value has exceeded 10% of Bitcoin's, which is enough to accommodate the inflow of safe-haven Bitcoins.

This inflow of funds is similar to the inflow of funds into the stock market to purchase assets for safe haven in anticipation of a sharp depreciation of the RMB, causing the stock market to rise.

What is the intrinsic relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin?

Ethereum is the underlying decentralized blockchain infrastructure built on the theoretical basis of Bitcoin. Ethereum is the first digital asset that can be called an “asset” on Bitcoin.

There is an obvious price seesaw effect between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Perhaps the relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin can be viewed in terms of the relationship between different legal currencies.

Using the analogy between the RMB and the U.S. dollar, if the U.S. dollar strengthens and triggers a large amount of RMB purchases of U.S. dollars, the RMB exchange rate will fall, and vice versa.

In the absence of sufficient external capital inflows, the rise of Ethereum will cause some diversion of Bitcoin funds.

Therefore, we can see an obvious seesaw effect between the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum: the period when Ethereum is rising sharply is exactly the stage when Bitcoin is plummeting.； When Bitcoin hits 3,000 yuan, Ethereum is in a low consolidation stage.

Even I observed a seesaw effect in the hourly fluctuations. If you are interested, you may wish to install "Bikan" to observe. "BiKan" can already display the Ethereum price of Yunbi and P.Net in real time.

Such a seesaw model can enable experienced investors to conduct investment management more efficiently, but it also places higher demands on investors' judgment capabilities.

What do you think about investing and speculation?

Ethereum has dual attributes of investment and speculation.

There is no doubt that the actual value of Ethereum as a project will be very great in the future. It is not an exaggeration to say that it will be a behemoth like Apple in the future.

It is precisely because of such strong growth expectations that Ethereum has soared 13 times in a short period of time.

But this process undoubtedly involves a state transition from investment to speculation.

I have no way of assessing what price is reasonable for Ethereum right now. Under the crazy speculative situation, it is not uncommon for the price of Ethereum to be wildly speculated in the short term. But as a new investor, whether you will accidentally take over the last baton and then stand at a high position for several months or even longer is a risk that needs to be avoided.

Buying in the range of 8-10 yuan can be regarded as investment； I am still buying when I reach 80. I personally think it is a strong speculation. Maybe this price won't matter in a few years, but right now, the speculative atmosphere is already too strong, and it's time to pay attention to safety.

Why am I betting that Ethereum won’t fall to 30 within a month?

Friends on Weibo may have noticed that I made a bet on Bitcoin with @bitcoingoldanalyst. I bet that the price will not fall to 30 within a month.

I'm willing to make this bet for two reasons:

1. From the perspective of a large cycle, the hype of Ethereum has not reached the stage of collapse. It may fluctuate repeatedly between 40-80 for a long time.

2. If I lose the bet, Ethereum will enter the value investment zone again, and I will get an excellent opportunity to increase my position. I very much look forward to my loss of the bet.

How to evaluate the price of Ethereum in the short, medium and long term?

The short term refers to the price within 1-2 months. At this stage, I personally think that there is a high possibility of wide fluctuations between 40-80 yuan. If Bitcoin strengthens, the price of Ethereum will approach the lower track ； If Bitcoin weakens again, it is possible for Ethereum to break through 80-100 yuan in the short term.

As I write this article, I still feel the strong speculative atmosphere in the Ethereum market. But how long this atmosphere can last is a matter of suspense that can only be determined by the outcome.

The mid-term refers to prices in 3-6 months. Prices during this period are still highly volatile. Uncertain factors during this period include the following:

1. Will there be any large domestic exchanges listing Ethereum?

2. Will Bitcoin’s halving market proceed as scheduled?

3. Will Bitcoin’s expansion and forks proceed smoothly?

4. Has Ethereum joined or cooperated with any large companies?

5. Have disruptive applications been developed on Ethereum?

6. Does Ethereum itself have any systemic problems?

Each item here will cause the price fluctuation of Ethereum. I am personally cautious about the price at this stage. The possible price fluctuation range is between 50-150.

Long-term refers to the price range of 1-3 years. This kind of prediction is basically a fool's errand, but it can be roughly evaluated based on market value.

As the underlying infrastructure of Ethereum, as long as there are no serious systemic problems, its market value can be expected to be that of a medium-sized global enterprise.

The expected market value we can see is 30-50 billion US dollars. According to the number of Ethereum issued, the limit price is about 250-400 US dollars.

At the same time, the market value of Bitcoin should exceed the market value of Ethereum. It is conservatively estimated to be US$100 billion, and the price of each Bitcoin should be around US$5,000.

The above price predictions will have great deviations, so please invest with caution.

How to trade Ethereum?

Currently, there are more than 20 major exchanges in the world that can trade Ethereum, and the following four have a trading scale of one million US dollars per day. Among them, Yunbi.com is the largest trading platform in China, with two trading pairs of RMB and Bitcoin.

I personally tested the number one trading platform Poloniex (hereinafter referred to as P network). This platform is relatively professional in trading, providing spot and futures trading methods. The main trading pair is the transaction between Bitcoin and Ethereum.

However, the P network uses Google's intelligent security identification system, which is quite troublesome for users who have difficulty circumventing the wall.

In addition to Ethereum, what other trading products are worth paying attention to?

Let’s talk about this briefly. According to my observation, the most popular products with relatively large trading volume on P.net include FCT, MAID, and XMR. But what is behind these coins? If you want to invest, you need to do your own homework.

Imagination on the new world of Ethereum in the future

If Ethereum succeeds, what kind of new world will it bring us?

First of all, blockchain technology will be spread throughout every corner of the earth, and better trust relationships can be established between anything and everything, people and things, and people.

The underlying technology of Ethereum will be as ubiquitous as an IP address, but you rarely feel its existence. Since Ethereum operates based on a decentralized architecture, the entire blockchain network will be very strong and unbreakable.

Even if Ethereum develops enough, it will be possible to absorb and implement all the functions of other digital currencies. Even Bitcoin will become a more useful "Etherbitcoin" through smart contracts that "burn coins", thus once and for all solving various problems left over from the history of Bitcoin.

Many people are concerned about whether the security of Ethereum after converting to POS will be the same as or even better than the current POW method. Please see Casper related articles. You can continue reading on this website later, which is a bit brain-burning. If you don't have the ability to think abstractly, it may be painful to read. If this mechanism can be truly implemented and verified, a secure operating mechanism beyond the Bitcoin POW method will open a new chapter in the blockchain revolution.

Supplement: Why has BTS been so sluggish?

bts is a breed that I have high hopes for. Before the emergence of Ethereum, several of its properties gave people great imagination. So far, I still think the "features" part of bts is excellent. But now it has irreversibly declined and has been in a long-term slump, with no possibility of developing in a better direction.

Personally, I think it is mainly caused by the following reasons:

Additional issuance, additional issuance, additional issuance. From the first issuance of bts, it has caused the dilution of value, which ultimately caused the community's distrust of the core team. Losing trust is the first step in the decline of bts. ；

BM's centralized management method makes BTS face a serious centralization crisis. Digital currency started with Bitcoin, and decentralization is one of the core concepts. The de facto centralized management model of bts makes its functions no matter how awesome it is. ；

Unreasonable fee mechanism and confusing community disputes. This part will not be expanded upon. Let me just say this briefly: transferring money on BTS makes people feel like they can’t afford it. To issue a new coin on Ethereum, you only need to use one Ether coin, but to issue a coin on BTS, forget it, I won’t check it, it’s very expensive anyway.

Version 2.0, which has not been publicly tested, BTS version 2.0 claims to have millions of data per second. In fact, it is basically impossible to realize it under the current bandwidth and equipment commonly used in the world, and there is no third-party public evaluation. This has to make people suspect that the real purpose behind this 2.0 upgrade is more of a complete transfer of power.

The rise of Ethereum. Ethereum can perfectly implement all the functions that BTS wants to implement in the form of applications, and even do it better, which makes BTS very embarrassed.

In the direction of currency payment, Bitcoin is already the leader, and in the direction of blockchain, Ethereum is a mountain that cannot be bypassed. Therefore, BTS is caught in an awkward gap.

All in all, the core reason for the downturn of BTS is the loss of trust caused by centralization, and the failure to find real demand points technically. For Ethereum, BTS may be more important as a warning about which pitfalls must not be stepped on.