ETH: The weak use the way to counteract the way

Vitalik 2025-10-14 17:30 47180人围观 ETH

Deepseek analysis: Let me combine the latest market trends to sort out the situation at the end of September for you and analyze the possible direction in October. In order for you to quickly grasp the core points, I will first use a table to summarize th

Deepseek analysis: Let me sort out the situation at the end of September for you based on the latest market dynamics, and analyze the possible direction in October.

In order for you to quickly grasp the core points, I will first use a table to summarize the main opinions and key positions of the current market.

Analysis Dimensions	Main point	Key price reference
Short term (end of September)	Market sentiment is bearish, technical conditions are under pressure, and we need to be wary of further downside risks.	Key Support: $3,800 – $3,900 Near-term resistance: $4,300 – $4,500
Mid-term (October)	There is an opportunity for an oversold rebound, but we need to pay attention to fundamental catalysts and overall market sentiment -.	Upside target: $4,400-$5,500- Important Resistance: $5,000 – $5,500

📉 End of September: Pay attention to key supports and market sentiment

September was indeed a challenging month for Ethereum. As of September 28, the time you checked, the price was hovering around $4,000, which is actually where it was after a significant decline.

Market status: Ethereum once plummeted by more than 4% on September 25, hitting a low of $3,961. This caused nearly 140,000 people to liquidate their positions, and the market panic was obvious. Historically, September is often the "off season" for the crypto market, and Ethereum has fallen by more than 10% this month, in line with its historical average performance of -.

Reason for the decline: This wave of decline is mainly related to the outflow of institutional funds from Ethereum spot ETFs (for example, a single-day net outflow reached US$141 million) and the large-scale liquidation of highly leveraged long positions. At the same time, macroscopically, the strength of the US dollar and the stance of the Federal Reserve have also increased market pressure.

What to watch in the next few days: For the rest of September, the focus will be on whether the key support range of $3,800 to $3,900 can be held. If it falls below, it may trigger a new wave of liquidation, causing the price to drop further -.

📈 October Outlook: Oversold Rebound and Potential Catalysts

Despite the unfavorable start, the market still has certain expectations for October, and some positive factors are accumulating.

Technical rebound opportunities: Currently, Ethereum’s relative strength index (RSI) has entered the oversold zone (such as 33.65
), which historically often indicates that a short-term rebound may occur at any time
. Some analysts predict that if market sentiment picks up, the price of Ethereum is expected to rise to around $4,500 in October.

Important Fundamental Catalysts: October will need to focus on the “Fusaka” upgrade planned for December 2025. This upgrade aims to improve network scalability and reduce gas fees, which is the key to boosting long-term market confidence. In addition, developments at the institutional level, such as the approval of new cryptocurrency ETF applications, may also inject confidence into the market -

Optimistic Analyst Views: Some analysts are expressing optimism about October. For example, Mark Newton, an analyst at Tom Lee’s fund, predicts that Ethereum is expected to rise to $5,500 by mid-October. Some analysts believe that if it breaks through the key resistance level, it may even challenge $6,000 before the end of October.

💎 Summary: Opportunities and risks coexist

Taken together, Ethereum's trend was still weak at the end of September, and the top priority is to hold on to key support. Entering October, the opportunity for an oversold rebound does exist, but the strength and sustainability of the rebound will be highly dependent on favorable fundamentals (such as the progress of the Fusaka upgrade) and the rebound in sentiment in the entire cryptocurrency market.

Sanye’s personal analysis: The current overall market situation is pessimistic, but my personal view is that the market has reached bottom. When everyone is worried that it will continue to fall, the market will slowly change. The current lowest level of this round of adjustment is $3,800. (The weak use the Tao in reverse, and the Tao moves in the opposite direction)