round, it’s SOL’s turn!

Anatoly 2025-10-14 17:58 21899人围观 SOL

This is the 368th article by Qi Qi Baicai. Disclaimer: In the investment field, information changes rapidly. The stock market is recorded in vernacular every day. The thinking process of the big pie circle does not constitute any investment advice. All pr

This is Qiqi Baicaidi's first368articles

Disclaimer: In the investment field, information changes rapidly. The stock market recorded in vernacular every day and the thinking process of the big pie circle do not constitute any investment advice. All profits and losses have nothing to do with me ☺️

Our place is closed for the National Day holiday, and the United States is also closed. One is active and the other is passive! It’s not that the US government is bankrupt. The US government’s fiscal year ends on September 30. The reason for this shutdown is very simple. The government’s right to spend money is in the hands of Congress. After the government’s money is spent, Congress will not approve the money for the next fiscal year! The last time this happened was 7 years ago, which happened to be when Trump was in power, which is kind of interesting!
Then why didn’t Congress approve it? This time, the focus of the funding debate between the two parties is health care. Trump's Republican party wants to cut health insurance, which will save the United States $840 billion in the next ten years, at the cost of 7.8 million Americans who may lose health insurance. ； Of course the Democratic Party disagrees and insists on keeping the Obamacare subsidy. This will expire at the end of the year. In November, Americans will start applying for next year’s health insurance, which will allow them to collect more medical premiums! After much fighting, the result was that the plan proposed by the Republican Party in the House of Representatives was rejected by the Democratic Party. The plan proposed by the Democratic Party in the Senate was rejected by the Republican Party. The matter is not over yet. It is not ruled out that Trump can use this to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates!

……Back to the market……

For the capital market, the shutdown of the United States will not cause the economy to collapse immediately, but a troublesome problem is that the market is blind! The ZF is shut down, and all key departments such as the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Commerce are on holiday. The key economic data we usually focus on (non-agricultural, CPI, PPI, etc.) are suspended. Then the Fed loses these eyes and ears. It is difficult to judge the true situation of the economy. The judgment on interest rate cuts in October becomes very tricky! So everyone is now staring at the life-saving straw of the US dollar index!

The U.S. dollar index has fallen 10 points to around 97.7! So on the one hand, market risk aversion increases, and gold rises sharply ； On the other hand, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts during the year have increased, and U.S. bond yields have fallen, which is good for the long-term valuation of the technology sector. Coupled with the impact of small non-agricultural data released by U.S. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) (previous value 5.4, announced value -3.2), the U.S. Nasdaq rose 0.43% overnight!

Looking at the impact on us, we can’t see Big A closing down, so the indirect impact will be on Hong Kong stocks. If the U.S. dollar continues to weaken and U.S. bond yields fall, the liquidity environment outside the U.S. capital market will be relatively better, and funds will be diverted to other markets besides the U.S. stock market, so Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well in the past two days!

The last time the US government shut down for 35 days, it caused a loss of 11 billion US dollars! This time it is expected to be longer. It is speculated that this was done intentionally by Trump. We are all on the same boat. As the captain, Trump was very dissatisfied with the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. He deliberately created "dollar instability" to rock the ship, forcing all passengers to hug the ship's mast, which "needs more U.S. dollars"!

……currency circle………

1. It felt different at the beginning of the fourth quarter. The currency circle began to ignore the rise and fall of U.S. stocks and began to rise across the board! Bitcoin has risen to around 119,000, and Ethereum has risen to around $4,400! How much impact will the closure of the United States have on the currency circle? Judging from historical experience, Bitcoin rose during the shutdown in Laos and the United States in 2013, and the shutdown in Laos and the United States lasted for 35 days in 2018-2019. The trend of Bitcoin was weak, and the impact of the two shutdowns on the currency circle was inconsistent!

But I think it depends on the purpose of the shutdown of Laos and the United States. This shutdown needs to be harvested by Trump in the currency circle. Alas, if the shutdown lasts for a long time and the market's trust in Lao and the United States' finances is damaged, it may promote "decentralized assets" such as Bitcoin as alternative hedging tools!

2. SOL has risen 5 points, from the lowest point a week ago to 15% now, standing at 220 US dollars! As mentioned before, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB have all reached new highs. No matter what, it is SOL’s turn. If this wave of DEX hadn’t taken away market attention and liquidity, I think SOL would have reached new highs! Although the popularity of dog hunting on the SOL chain is not as popular as before, it is a good thing that SOL has a spot ETF. It can be approved as soon as next week. The US government is shut down and the SEC is not at work. It is estimated that it can be approved next week!

There are currently 8 companies applying for SOL spot ETFs, namely Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, Franklin, Fidelity and CoinShares. Big investors also have to look to Franklin and Fidelity.

3. I don’t know how many people were like me yesterday. They saw that Bnbchain’s official tweet was stolen and didn’t take it seriously. When I saw someone else posting about it, the market value of $4 was only 400,000. I didn’t care! When someone went to buy it, Binance Wallet also prompted that it was a ZP coin!

0x0a43fc31a73013089df59194872ecae4cae14444

Binance's CZ gave it a try, and the result was a direct increase to 20 million. The hacker ran away early and was seriously speechless! This wave is really a benefit from CZ to players who are still monitoring and scanning the chain of bsc! So you see, there are surprises everywhere when it comes to getting rich in the currency circle! It’s much better to not share in the rise of A-shares than to lose your share in the fall of A-shares!

4. Justin Sun’s Perp Dex was officially unveiled, and sunperp was actually named Sun Wukong directly! Always tied to his own IP, how confident is Brother Sun, haha! Wukong? Okay, Master, I understand, I will go short immediately!

5. Binance alpha is preparing to launch $EVAA tomorrow. This is the first decentralized lending agreement on the TON chain. It is funded by the Ton Foundation and is a project led by Animoca Brands. The previous private placement round was valued at US$2.5 million. Now it is preparing to launch alpha. The opening circulation is only 2%. High control, let’s see what the price of the online currency is. Pay more attention!