BTC four-year cycle is dead

Nakamoto 2025-10-15 03:39 12508人围观 BTC

The roar of the money printing press is drowning out the rhythm of Bitcoin halving, and a cryptocurrency prophet declares the end of the old order. The future of Bitcoin’s bull and bear market cycles will entirely depend on the expected release of fiat li

The roar of the money printing press is drowning out the rhythm of Bitcoin's halving, and a cryptocurrency prophet declares the end of the old order.

The future of Bitcoin’s bull and bear market cycles will entirely depend on the expected release of fiat liquidity.

The Federal Reserve is preparing to inject massive amounts of liquidity into the U.S. economy, which will force investors to pile into BTC as a hedge against currency depreciation. This view was further extended in October 2025. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s previous bull tops are related to changes in the “price and supply” of the US dollar and RMB, and that the current cycle is different from the past four years.

01 The collapse of the four-year cycle myth

According to traditional knowledge, Bitcoin has a strong cyclical nature due to its output being halved every four years. The three tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 are regarded as the iron law of cycles. This theory is based on a simple logic: the halving event reduces miner rewards and shrinks supply. If demand remains unchanged or increases, prices will inevitably rise.

Historical data also seems to support this pattern: About 518 days after the second halving (July 2016), Bitcoin peaked in December 2017； Approximately 549 days after the third halving (May 2020), it peaked in November 2021. Many analysts have predicted that Bitcoin will reach its all-time high around December 2025.

However, structural changes in the market have broken this seemingly stable law. As the market value of Bitcoin grows and the influence of halving decreases, there is no rigorous scientific theory to support the "four-year cycle theory".

On-chain data shows that the behavior of the investor group who have held BTC for 1-3 years was originally highly consistent with the bull-bear cycle. However, as the institutionalization and popularity of BTC increased, the bottom value of this group increased year by year, and the number of long-term holders increased, further weakening the cyclicality.

02 Liquidity, the new dominant variable

Hayes shifted his focus from the halving event to global liquidity, especially the credit policies of the US dollar and the renminbi. He combed through three cycles from 2009 to 2021 and found that when USD/CNY credit growth slowed or contracted and interest rates rose, Bitcoin peaked and fell. ； When the U.S. dollar undergoes massive QE, helicopter money, or China's credit expansion, prices strengthen.

This analytical framework has been verified in the market environment of 2025. Despite a poor four months following the 2024 Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin surged 54% to an all-time high of $123,236 in July 2025. This anomaly directly challenges traditional cycle theory.

Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju publicly admitted that he made wrong predictions based on the four-year cycle theory and announced that "the four-year Bitcoin cycle theory is dead." His misjudgment stemmed from his failure to fully consider structural changes in the market, especially changes in the behavioral patterns of institutional investors.

03 Institutional reconstruction of market logic

The premise of traditional cycle theory is that the market is dominated by retail investors and whales, forming a cycle of "whale accumulation-retail investors taking over-price peaking". However, the entry of institutional investors has completely changed this dynamic.

Institutions are using Bitcoin as an asset allocation tool rather than a speculative tool. They employ multi-year investment strategies that prioritize risk management and capital preservation. This "buy and hold" strategy means they absorb supply without triggering the sell-off that characterized past bull cycles.

Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer and others still adhere to the four-year cycle theory, but Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan noted that the impact of halvings "halves" every four years, while institutional adoption, regulatory progress and macroeconomic conditions now have a greater impact on Bitcoin's trajectory.

04 Geopolitics and the acceleration of the money printing press

We are in the midst of a transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order, and politicians tend to print money to appease the "changed situation".

He believes that the Trump administration will pursue highly populist fiscal policies and continue to provide direct benefits to the people in order to win elections. At the same time, China is fighting deflation and adopting piecemeal stimulus measures. ； Japan, Europe, and the United States all had to print money simultaneously.

“The U.S. Treasury Department is the real deal. Don't worry about the Federal Reserve anymore. That doesn't matter. All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system than there were yesterday. ”Hayes said in May 2025. The U.S. Treasury Department is quietly reshaping global liquidity through active national debt management strategies, especially under the leadership of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Huge U.S. government deficit spending and weakening foreign demand for U.S. debt have forced the government to rely on domestic "financial engineering" to fill the funding gap.

05 Price expectations under the new framework

Based on the liquidity analysis framework, Hayes made an ambitious prediction for the Bitcoin price: reaching US$150,000 to US$250,000 by the end of 2025, and hitting US$1 million in 2028.

His investment strategy is "all-round long", with Bitcoin accounting for the highest proportion in his personal investment portfolio, and he also holds Ethereum and some "valuable altcoins."

However, Hayes also warned that there will be a "large-scale DAT accident" at the bottom of this cycle, similar to the scene where FTX exploded at the bottom stage. These companies may overturn, and their stocks or bonds may experience huge discounts, providing arbitrage funds in the global secondary market with the opportunity to "buy the bottom - compress discounts - and unlock the crypto assets in the vault."

06 A complete change in investor strategies

In the new environment where the four-year cycle has expired, investors need to completely change their strategies. On-chain data analysis becomes more important than historical pattern comparison. Arthur Hayes recommends paying attention to several core indicators: changes in U.S. dollar liquidity, China's credit policy, and on-chain signals such as huge amounts of realized profits.

“Abandon trying to find a sword and rely on logical deduction. ”On-chain analysis experts point out that with the increasing institutionalization and popularity of BTC, investors should avoid relying on empiricism such as "the price will rise after halving" and "the price will rise in the new year" and focus on the real supply and demand on the chain.

In the future, there may be an atypical cycle of "a short-term bottom followed by a rapid rise". It is necessary to judge market sentiment and chip trends through real-time on-chain data instead of adhering to historical laws.

The Bitcoin market has entered an unprecedented new environment. Institutional investors now dominate, transforming Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a mainstream financial instrument. With the launch of the US Bitcoin ETF, traditional financial markets have gained a new channel to invest in Bitcoin, which further weakens the impact of the halving event.

Global monetary policy, not the halving event, will determine the future direction of Bitcoin.

In this new liquidity-driven era, Bitcoin’s cycle is no longer determined by a fixed schedule, but rather by the pace of money printing by the world’s major central banks.